Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)
Before we dive into Paychex, here are some recently covered stocks you may be interested in:
Automatic Data Processing ADP 0.00%↑
Background
Paychex Inc. PAYX 0.00%↑ is a leading provider of human capital management solutions, offering payroll, HR, benefits and related services, tailored to small and medium-sized business, mostly in the U.S. but with operations in Europe & India.
The company was founded in 1971 by Thomas Golisano and is headquartered in Rochester, NY and pays 1 out of every 12 private sector employees.
PAYX 0.00%↑ has a total return over the past decade of a little more than 300%, giving it a compound annual growth rate of 15% during that time.
Quality Financial Metrics
Let’s take a look at some important financials metrics and assess how the company has performed.
Revenue Per Share:
The RPS for PAYX 0.00%↑ has nearly doubled from $8.20 in FY16 to $15.5 in FY25, resulting in a CAGR of about 7.3%.
The growth has been pretty consistent with some years better than others; the biggest gains were in FY19 & FY22, where it grew by 11.6% and 13.5%, respectively.
Gross Profit Margin:
The gross profit margin has hovered around 70%.
There was a slight dip from the beginning of the chart until the middle (FY2020), but since then the GPM has expanded every year, including an astounding 72.4% in FY 2025.
Return on Invested Capital:
The ROIC for PAYX 0.00%↑ was up nearly every year, until 2025 when it still came in at a very healthy 16.3%.
A company’s ability to generate Returns on Invested Capital in the high teens to low twenties is a very good sign, and definitely worth noting for Paychex.
Dividend Data
PAYX 0.00%↑ has raised their dividend for more than 10 years, and since fiscal year 2016 it has more than doubled from $1.76 per share to almost $4.00 in FY25.
Aside from the covid year, the dividend growth has been robust, typically around 10%, or higher.
The payout ratio is pretty high but without a lot of ongoing capital expenditures, the company can sustain a higher payout ratio.
Potential Headwinds
Economic Uncertainty: Paychex is facing increased financial distress and bankruptcies among its micro-market clients, as noted by CEO John Gibson during the Q4 2025 earnings call. Economic uncertainty, including concerns over tariffs, inflation, and taxes has led SMBs to adopt a more cautious approach to spending and hiring, resulting in more business closures.
Employee Retention Tax Credit Expiration: The end of the ERTC, a significant revenue driver during the pandemic, had a 200-300 bps drag on revenue growth in FY25. Management also expects a continued impact, at least partially into 2026. The loss of the ERTC affects the “back office” part of the company, which includes payroll tax administration services, and contributed to investor concerns about weak growth, as evidenced by a close to 10% drop in stock price following the Q4 2025 earnings release.
These challenges for PAYX 0.00%↑ are partially offset by some strategic initiatives, such as the Paycor acquisition and AI innovations, but they remain critical obstacles to navigate in the near term.
Q4 & Fiscal 2025 Results
In late June, the company announced their Q4 2025 earnings results. Both Non-GAAP EPS was $1.19 per share, on revenue of $1.43B, both were in-line with estimates.
Starting with the Q4 results, revenue was up 10% YoY and below is a breakdown.
Management Solutions saw revenue rise 12% and made up the bulk of the revenue, about 75%. The increase in revenue was driven by the Paycor acquisition, and cross selling to existing clients, including HR and Retirement solutions.
PEO (Professional Employer Organization) & Insurance Solutions revenue grew 4%, with growth in the number of average worksite employees as well as insurance premiums.
Interest on Funds Held for Clients rose the most, about 18%, but made up the smallest piece of the overall pie. The rise was essentially all attributed to the acquisition of Paycor (3% rise excluding the acquisition).
Fiscal 2025 Results
Revenues increased 6%, with adjusted EPS also rising 6%.
Adjusted operating margin expanded 60 bps compared to FY24.
Continued product penetration and cross-selling across all business units.
Paid almost $1.5B in dividends and repurchased more than $100M of stock.
2026 Projections
Management also provided preliminary 2026 estimates which are shown below.
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Valuation
Let’s dive into the valuation for PAYX 0.00%↑ and see if the company is trading for a discount or a premium.